Big Dave's a hard-hitter. He watches the game from afar, sits
back, surmises, then reels forward with one of the game's punchiest attitudes. Calling a spade a spade? This guy invented one, and he knows how to shovel it up them too.

But if you disagree with Open Goal's chief columnist, email in your thoughts and opinions to response@opengoalmagazine.co.uk

This month...

Is the end of the 'Top Four' nigh?

With more foreign owners and money in the game than ever before, the Premier League landscape is continually changing, all the while affecting the security of the traditional 'top four'.

But money isn't everything. Aston Villa's and Everton’s recent ascent has been relatively frugal. At the other end, Sunderland, Manchester City and Spurs have all shown money doesn’t guarantee success.

So what does the future hold for the traditional ‘Top Four’?

Manchester United :

For the champions of England and Europe, all would seem well. However a look at the history books may suggest otherwise. Back in 2002 Fergie was planning to retire after the most successful managerial stint in the clubs history. Why? The Champions League Final for that year was played at Hampden Park. Many believed the big Scot was planning a retirement party in his home town after winning his second European Cup.

Alas, United fell at the semis, Ferguson announced he would continue and began the process of rebuilding before going on to recapture the Premier League crown twice, as well as that elusive second Champions League title last season.

However, last year’s league title takes United to within just one of the record.

Liverpool have won the top flight division, a record breaking 18 times. Should United win the league this year,

Ferguson would need only one more season to try and
oversee the most spectacular dethroning in the history of
the football league.

In contrast, if Liverpool win, Ferguson would need at least three years (winning back-to-back titles), to overtake them. This may prove too much at 67, for even him to contemplate.

We can not know exactly what impact Ferguson leaving united will have. However, United themselves provide a fair blueprint.

After Sir Matt Busby stepped down as manager having won five league titles and a European Cup in total, and it took them over 25 years before they won the league again!

Perhaps he was too strong a personality or cast too great a shadow to replace.

Whatever it was,

If it took a quarter of a century and the arrival of Ferguson to
begin to reach the heights set by Busby, how long and what
will it take to reach the bar set by Ferguson himself?

The clock is set at 25 years and counting. Whoever fills the shoes, good luck.

Chelsea :

Fifty years without winning the league and suddenly you receive an unlimited cheque book, the license to buy the best players in the world and in Jose Mourinho, a manager who has won the lot with Porto, without Roman's Russian Rubles. The Special One comes in and wins two back-to-back league titles, as well as the FA Cup, two League Cups and the Community Shield. So what do you do?

You fire him of course. And this is the problem when foreign investors come in and don't understand the history of a club. Chelsea’s success was beyond the imagination of everyone other than Abramovich. The same situation could be seen at City last season where fans still delirious over a first double over Utd in 28 years + European football (albeit via the back door), resulted in Sven getting his P45.

Scolari buckled under intense pressure quicker than most of us would have imagined, and how long before Gus Hiddink starts to feel the pinch as well, with an incredible amount of pressure seemingly coming from the top.

The void which has been left at Chelsea by the
departure of their most successful manager ever is still
clear for all to see.

The irony for Chelsea fans must be overwhelming. The only man who can bring in the talent they crave is the very same man who will whimsically dismiss it when he sees fit.

If and when Ambramovich does leave, the club will be left completely unsustainable. Their debts will be crippling with a salary bill impossible to front. Leeds Utd anyone?

What's worse is that Chelsea’s players are for the most part too old to sell for any kind of meaningful returns. What will a 30+ Ballack, Deco and Lampard get you these days?

So if Abramovich leaves, the future of the club is fragile and uncertain. As long as he stays, expect more seasons of turmoil until he gets that first Champions League. And if he does, he might not have much to stick around for...

Arsenal :

What's happened at Arsenal? Where's the money, why won't he spend it? Has the ground made Arsenal a selling club? Where's the experience? Has the boss run out ideas? Many of these points are matters of opinion, some however are fact. The Emirates cost £430m to build and Wenger himself recently said that Arsenal would need to sell players for the next 17 years to recoup the investment.

Is Arsenal now a selling club? Yes. A selling club releases its 'star players', this category clearly includes club captains. In the last four years, Arsenal sold their 'invincibles' - captain Patrick Vieira, followed by their record breaking talisman Thierry Henry.

Sadly for most it is now a question of when, not if, they will sell Cesc Fabregas. Add to this the exodus of Flammini, Hleb, Diarra and of course Ashley Cole.... All for considerable profits and it is clear to see money has played a major role.

Whether or not Wenger has lost his touch is more debatable. Certainly many would question the wisdom of the aforementioned sales, most of whom operated in Arsenal’s now under-strength midfield.

What good is it building a young team for the
future if, as soon as they mature into more experienced
players, you sell them?

However Arsenal fans can hardly complain, they suffer a similar irony as Chelsea’s. Whilst their most successful manager stays, Arsenal fans must accept a buy and sell approach and one that will tend to favour youth over experience. This has worked previously, delivering a record breaking haul of trophies.

That said, it has now been three years without one and the signs this season are ominous.

Just as success breeds success, so too does failure breed failure. A fourth year without silverware will undoubtedly lead to more players leaving and even more pressure. With Villa knocking on the door, Arsenal’s automatic ‘top four’ status could be gone for good.

Liverpool :

Arguably the most likely to retain their top four credentials as it currently stands. In Rafa Benitez Liverpool have a manager who has delivered silverware, as well as surviving a full five years in the Premier League with the same club. Whether or not they can win the title is debatable. For the last 10 years Liverpool haven’t really troubled the league winners. Anfield’s expectations have been placated through FA Cup success and of course the European Cup.

This season though has brought about the first serious title talk in years, the bar has been raised. New foreign owners are in place, but infighting has broken out.

As discussed, foreign owners often yield unrealistic expectations and ambiguity at the top. This can already be seen with Benitez now refusing to sign his contract on the basis that he does not have total control over transfer policy.

If the owners fail to capitulate to his demands, don’t
be surprised if the Spaniard walks.

Couple all of this with the talk of a new super ground and the risk of turning into a selling club must also be considered.

With a manager who will not sign his contract, a new ground which needs funding and an internal power struggle between the owners apparently no nearer a conclusion, its far from plain sailing across the Mersey at present.

So the future of the top four is less certain than ever before.

Chelsea have shown cash is not always king. Arsenal have shown that tactical genius on its own is not always enough. And Liverpool  are lacking on both fronts. United seem to have had the balance right, but that legacy is nearly at an end.

So as the Russians, the Americans, the Sheiks, and all the promising new managers wait in the wings, the future is far from certain.

With the richest club in the world now just a stone’s throw from Old Trafford, who knows what the right ingredients could deliver for City. Jose Mourinho anyone? And with a spine of English talent and one of the best managers in the game, the future finally looks bright for Villa.

The traditional top four would all appear to have fallibilities and infrastructural issues. The evidence points to this cartel finally being disbanded. Only reinvention, imagination and talent within the rank and file of each club will dictate whether or not, once it’s broken, it can ever be fixed.

Whether or not it should be, well that's another debate...